Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
